[ColinS]

It still remains that the virus passes between wild and domestic birds whether you discount the long distance transmission theory.

Well, from the point of view of the risk assessment you mentioned in an earlier post what it has to say about transmission through trade is more important:-

"Considering the extensive poultry trade flows, including those between H5N8-affected regions (cf. UN Comtrade statistics), the risk of HPAI virus circulation by poultry production and trade remains significantly high."

But as we all know risk assessments, like other management tools, can, and unfortunately often are, used to give the answer you want not the right one. I was involved in the Cassini mission and a Gantt chart was prepared to show the instrumentation would be ready in time for launch (despite we scientists/engineers saying it wouldn't). You hardly need me to tell you that the launch was eventually put back in the face of reality.

In the current situation I think this sums it up nicely:-

http://quotesgram.com/img/risk-management-funny-quotes/12699548/

[harmony]

I don't doubt that the backyard flocks and the pheasant hatchery got it from wild birds - but thats not really the point.

Defra arent putting these measures in place to protect small backyard flocks - they don't in all honesty give a good toss about those,  the point of all these precautions is to stop bird flu becoming endemic in the uk because of the impact that would have on the poultry industry

so you have to wonder why we are bothering if the poultry industry then decide to import thousands of potentially infected birds from over seas

So, what do you suggest the poultry industry does then? Stop operating until there is no bird flu here or elsewhere? In the meantime I suppose we could look forward to cheap eggs and chicken from abroad.

[harmony]

It still remains that the virus passes between wild and domestic birds whether you discount the long distance transmission theory.

Well, from the point of view of the risk assessment you mentioned in an earlier post what it has to say about transmission through trade is more important:-

"Considering the extensive poultry trade flows, including those between H5N8-affected regions (cf. UN Comtrade statistics), the risk of HPAI virus circulation by poultry production and trade remains significantly high."

But as we all know risk assessments, like other management tools, can, and unfortunately often are, used to give the answer you want not the right one. I was involved in the Cassini mission and a Gantt chart was prepared to show the instrumentation would be ready in time for launch (despite we scientists/engineers saying it wouldn't). You hardly need me to tell you that the launch was eventually put back in the face of reality.

In the current situation I think this sums it up nicely:-

http://quotesgram.com/img/risk-management-funny-quotes/12699548/

Whether you agree the with risk assessment, the measures in place, the movement of thousands of birds from abroad to the UK, the role of wild birds etc the number of cases in the UK doesn't appear to be out of control but maybe that is luck not management?

[ColinS]

Whether you agree the with risk assessment, the measures in place, the movement of thousands of birds from abroad to the UK, the role of wild birds etc the number of cases in the UK doesn't appear to be out of control but maybe that is luck not management?

Given that there is much that is not understood about the virus, for example the possible spread by aerosol which is a game changer as regards biosecurity requirements, it may indeed be a matter of luck which is not how risk management should work. It is not risk management to lean a bit further out of a high window because you haven't fallen out yet....

[Marches Farmer]

Absolutely!

[harmony]

So, what do we do?


Unfortunately, understanding the virus may take a very long time.


As for risk management is it leaning out of the window that is the risk, leaning out too far or being high up? Surely it depends on whether you need to lean out of the window at all and what you consider the risk of leaning out to be.

[Marches Farmer]

....and yet ..... bird gatherings are banned in the UK until 30th April.  It seems to me that aerosol dispersal of the virus must surely be a factor, whereas there appears to have been a lot of emphasis on poop in the prevention advice so far this Winter.

[ColinS]

So, what do we do?


Unfortunately, understanding the virus may take a very long time.


As for risk management is it leaning out of the window that is the risk, leaning out too far or being high up? Surely it depends on whether you need to lean out of the window at all and what you consider the risk of leaning out to be.

Well, I guess if you don't understand the virus you can perhaps discount thought-transfer and teleportation as methods of spread and assume all else is possible and operate on that basis. Even if the source in Romania is clear, driving live birds across Europe has all the biosecurity benefits of surgeons taking a patient mid op. for a breath of fresh air in the car-park.

And why live chickens? We have not lost masses of chickens by culling and for the meat trade they don't need to be brought in live. So presumably this is simply replacing layers for egg production. Surely breeding them in the UK has to be less hazardous.

[Black Sheep]

driving live birds across Europe has all the biosecurity benefits of surgeons taking a patient mid op. for a breath of fresh air in the car-park

That's hardly an appropriate comparison - the chickens aren't being cut open and don't have a need for medical treatment for starters. How much of a biosecurity risk transport is will depend on lots of things, such as the mode of transmission and the proximity needed for it, the transport route taken, the ability of the virus to persist in the environment away from the host and so on.

Surely breeding them in the UK has to be less hazardous.

Logically we'd think so, but there are so many factors at play (that frankly we're guessing at) that it is entirely feasible to envisage a scenario where the UK element of the process is the riskiest part. In such a scenario the longer time spent in the UK for birds bred here could actually increase hazard. I'm not suggesting this is the case, just that it is within the range of possibilities. And as you said, when we don't understand things fully we can discount science fiction but everything else remains possible and we should operate on that basis.

[harmony]

So, what do we do?


Unfortunately, understanding the virus may take a very long time.


As for risk management is it leaning out of the window that is the risk, leaning out too far or being high up? Surely it depends on whether you need to lean out of the window at all and what you consider the risk of leaning out to be.

Well, I guess if you don't understand the virus you can perhaps discount thought-transfer and teleportation as methods of spread and assume all else is possible and operate on that basis. Even if the source in Romania is clear, driving live birds across Europe has all the biosecurity benefits of surgeons taking a patient mid op. for a breath of fresh air in the car-park.

And why live chickens? We have not lost masses of chickens by culling and for the meat trade they don't need to be brought in live. So presumably this is simply replacing layers for egg production. Surely breeding them in the UK has to be less hazardous.

We are not talking about one wagon full that was recently spotted at a service station. That will be one of many since bird flu arrived here and we haven't had masses of outbreaks.


Yes, it might be a nice idea that we bred all our chickens here but it is not going to happen over night and it is not going to produce birds at a realistic cost because if it did we would already be doing it.


People we know have seen the price for a tray of eggs drop by half in just a week!


Black Sheep is spot on -" there are many factors at play (that frankly we're are guessing at)"


It is easy to take a pop at those managing the situation but I go back to the point that most of us on here keep a small flock of poultry and will not be put out of business should we lose them. I appreciate that there are rare breeds at risk in possible culls.


Yes, we can have a total ban on imports but at the end of the day what concerns people the most - losing their small back yard flocks or the impact on the egg and chicken industry?

[ColinS]

it is entirely feasible to envisage a scenario where the UK element of the process is the riskiest part. In such a scenario the longer time spent in the UK for birds bred here could actually increase hazard. I'm not suggesting this is the case, just that it is within the range of possibilities. And as you said, when we don't understand things fully we can discount science fiction but everything else remains possible and we should operate on that basis.

Well, to give your theory wings you are going to come up with a UK-based hazard that is greater than driving the birds 2400km through countries where the virus is known to prevail. As for the persistence of the virus in the environment there are papers suggesting at least 30 days. Unless the transportation is in wagons ventilated via  HEPA filters they are going to encounter quite a lot of aerosol from the roadway over which other loads of poultry (to say nothing of wild birds) may have passed in the previous 30 days.

[harmony]

Fortunately it isn't up to anyone here to give any of their theories wings!

[big soft moose]

We are not talking about one wagon full that was recently spotted at a service station. That will be one of many since bird flu arrived here and we haven't had masses of outbreaks.

We have however had several outbreaks in  large housed units where the  infected chickens are not known to have had any contact with wild birds.  The introduction of infected birds from eastern europe would certainly be one explanation for that 

Yes, we can have a total ban on imports but at the end of the day what concerns people the most - losing their small back yard flocks or the impact on the egg and chicken industry?

Speaking personally I could quite happily kiss off the industrial poultry industry which verges on inhumane anyway both in terms of the laughably named 'enrichment box' and in how the chickens are transported.  Yes eggs would be more expensive in that scenario, but on the other hand owners of free range or  loose barn flocks would not be continually undercut on price

[harmony]

We are not talking about one wagon full that was recently spotted at a service station. That will be one of many since bird flu arrived here and we haven't had masses of outbreaks.

We have however had several outbreaks in  large housed units where the  infected chickens are not known to have had any contact with wild birds.  The introduction of infected birds from eastern europe would certainly be one explanation for that 

Yes, we can have a total ban on imports but at the end of the day what concerns people the most - losing their small back yard flocks or the impact on the egg and chicken industry?

Speaking personally I could quite happily kiss off the industrial poultry industry which verges on inhumane anyway both in terms of the laughably named 'enrichment box' and in how the chickens are transported.  Yes eggs would be more expensive in that scenario, but on the other hand owners of free range or  loose barn flocks would not be continually undercut on price

Several outbreaks in large housed units?  Have we? Take out the backyard flocks and the pheasant hatchery we are still in small, single numbers. Three I believe.


Where do you think the free range and loose barn flocks get their replacements from?

[Womble]

We can theorize all we like, but let's face it, we don't know. What I think most on here would agree with though, is that the whole system and ethos of food production is broken. Birds are hatched in one country, before being trucked across many more. They are kept in cramped, disease-inducing conditions, grown un-naturally fast and slaughtered un-naturally young. Valuable drugs like antibiotics are used to suppress the diseases encouraged by these methods, thus hastening the day they will become ineffective in treating our own diseases.

We once took a batch of our own hubbard meat chickens to a commercial slaughterhouse. The vet on duty said "I'm sorry, you've filled the form in wrongly - where it says % mortality, you've written nil. You need to take the number that died, and divide that by the number you started with." I replied "ah, that's because we started off with forty day-old chicks, and I've now got forty birds ready for slaughter". He looked somewhat surprised, and said "Seriously!? OK, let's go and see these birds of yours". I led him out to the trailer. "Wow!" he exclaimed. "They've got feathers!!".

We need to wake up!  But the trouble is, big business is a powerful lobbying force, and we're all addicted to cheap food. As such, there are few driving forces for change, and many resisting forces.